A research study to predict the waning of the second wave of COVID-19 in Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala & West Bengal
In the current pandemic situation, a pertinent question is the estimate of time by which the second wave of COVID – 19 spread could be contained and normalcy would return. In this context, Prof. D. Narayana Rao, Pro-Vice-Chancellor, SRM University – AP initiated the study to predict the End-Time of COVID – 19 in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala & West Bengal. Dr. Soumyajyoti Biswas of SRM University – AP along with 4 B.Tech Students: Mr. Anvesh Reddy, Mr. Hanesh Koganti, Mr. Sai Krishna, and Mr. Suhas Reddy have carried out an interesting study to predict the end time of the second wave of COVID – 19 spread in these states. Study employed Susceptible – Infected – Recovered (SIR) Model making use of the information on the COVID – 19 affected people and the number of recovered people, the data which the state governments make them available. SRM Team made use of these data employed SIR Model and applied the methods of Machine Learning. The End -Times of the spread of COVID-19 for different states are given in the following table:
| States | Uttar Pradesh | Delhi | Karnataka | Maharashtra | Andhra Pradesh | Tamil Nadu | Kerala | West Bengal |
| End-time | May 27 | May 28 | July 1 | July 13 | July 16 | July 26 | August 12 | September 2 |
| Errors | -2 days, + 3 days | -2 days, + 2 days | – 6 days, + 5 days | -7 days, + 7 days | -16 days, + 28 days | -17 days, + 33 days | -14 days, + 14 days | -30 days, + 30 days |
End-Time is defined as the date on which the number of COVID affected cases get reduced to 5% of the peak number of cases occurred in the particular state.
The model is also validated with the actuals occurred in the States of Delhi and Uttar Pradesh.
Uttar Pradesh: Peak of 37,944 was n 24th April 2021 and 5% of the peak number is 1897 and is predicted to occur on 27th May with an error of -2 days to +3 days
Actuals: 27th May: 3179, 28th May: 2276, 29th May: 2014, 30th May: 1864
Delhi: Peak of 28,935 was on 20th April 2021 and 5% of the peak number is 1490 and is predicted to occur on 28th May with an error of – 2 days to + 2 days
Actuals:26th May: 1491, 27th May : 1072, 28th May : 1141
The validation mentioned of the end-times of the second wave of COVID-19 spread increases our confidence level to the predictions made for other states also.
It can be noticed that in the States of West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh, the second wave of COVID-19 continues to spread for longer periods and errors are large compared to the other states of Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Karnataka, and Maharashtra. Perhaps, these factors could be attributed to the large gatherings that have occurred in the 4 states on several occasions.
Prof Narayana Rao said that these predictions mentioned above could help in estimating the impact on medium and small business sectors. In the education sector, it could help in planning the academic sessions, examinations, etc. It could also help to plan necessary medical infrastructure for healthcare in different states.
The details of the study can be found in [2105.13288] Machine learning predictions of COVID-19 second wave end-times in Indian states (arxiv.org)